Commentary

There is a high probability that a tropical depression or tropical storm will develop this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given the low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico an 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours and an 90% chance of development within the next five days (see Fig. 1). The low is currently … [Read more...] about Gulf States Likely To Be Impacted By Tropical Cyclone

There is a high probability that a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by mid to late week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given a shortwave located over central Georgia an 80% chance of development within the next five days (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: NHC’s probability of development graphic The shortwave trough is … [Read more...] about 80% Chance Of Tropical Development; Florida To Texas May See Impacts

There’s an increasing chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-to late this upcoming week. A shortwave is currently located over the Tennessee Valley (see Fig. 1). This shortwave will continue to advance southeast today into Monday (see Fig. 2). As the shortwave dives southeast, a weak surface low will develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This … [Read more...] about Increasing Chance For Tropical Cyclone Development In Gulf Of Mexico This Week

The Atlantic Basin has been fairly quiet thus far this season thanks to strong wind shear and widespread Saharan dust. However, tropical trouble is a possibility for the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. Numerical guidance is flirting with the idea of a tropical cyclone (Barry) developing by mid to late next week in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The latest runs of the European … [Read more...] about Barry To Develop In The Gulf Of Mexico?