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© Scott White

A notebook of notably noteworthy and sometimes notorious notes, thoughts and pontifications.

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BIG Cool Down On The Way!

By Scott

The dangerous heat will relax this upcoming week for the eastern United States. A stout pattern change will take place thanks to a deep trough digging into the east Monday into Tuesday (see Fig. 1). This trough will setup a northerly flow across the east allowing a strong cold front to move across the eastern half of the United States Monday through Tuesday. Behind the cold … [Read more...] about BIG Cool Down On The Way!

Atlantic Tropical Activity To Heat Up As El Niño Fades

By Scott

El Niño conditions continue this summer but not for much longer. The June Niño 3.4 index (the primary ENSO measurement) was 0.6°C above the long-term average (El Niño is present when the average sea-surface temperatures across the central & eastern tropical Pacific are 0.5°C or greater over an extended period of time). The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting … [Read more...] about Atlantic Tropical Activity To Heat Up As El Niño Fades

Gulf States Likely To Be Impacted By Tropical Cyclone

By Scott

There is a high probability that a tropical depression or tropical storm will develop this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given the low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico an 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours and an 90% chance of development within the next five days (see Fig. 1). The low is currently … [Read more...] about Gulf States Likely To Be Impacted By Tropical Cyclone

80% Chance Of Tropical Development; Florida To Texas May See Impacts

By Scott

There is a high probability that a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by mid to late week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given a shortwave located over central Georgia an 80% chance of development within the next five days (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: NHC’s probability of development graphic The shortwave trough is … [Read more...] about 80% Chance Of Tropical Development; Florida To Texas May See Impacts

Increasing Chance For Tropical Cyclone Development In Gulf Of Mexico This Week

By Scott

There’s an increasing chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-to late this upcoming week. A shortwave is currently located over the Tennessee Valley (see Fig. 1). This shortwave will continue to advance southeast today into Monday (see Fig. 2). As the shortwave dives southeast, a weak surface low will develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This … [Read more...] about Increasing Chance For Tropical Cyclone Development In Gulf Of Mexico This Week

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